Wednesday 1 February 2017

2016/17 xG

Updated 22/5/2017


This non-penalty expected goals model uses data sourced from Sportify which uses info about the location of a shot, the individual quality of the player taking the shot, and the placement of the shot. (Yeah, I know...)

This non-penalty xG model tends to undershoot actual non-penalty goals by ~0.3 goals per 2016/17 PL fixture. Use with caution, tread lightly, fistful of salt etc..

Key

GF Delta = Goals For - xG for (positive number = over performance)
GA Delta = Goals Against - xG Against (Negative number = under performance)
xSh% = xG for/Shots For (some people call this xG/per shot for some reason)
xSv% = xG Against/Shots Against
xPDO = xSh%+xSv%
Sh% Delta = Actual Sh% - xSh% (positive number = over performance)
Sv% Delta = Actual Sv% - xSv%
PDO Delta = Actual PDO - xPDO
Sh% = Non-Penalty Goals For/ Non-Penalty Shots For
Sv% = 100- Non-Penalty Goals Against/ Non-Penalty Shots Against



xG For xG Against XG +/- xG Ratio GF Delta GA Delta Goal +/- Delta xSh% xSv% xPDO Sh% Delta Sv% Delta PDO Delta Actual NPG %’s Act Sh% Act Sv% Act PDO
Arsenal 61.7 36.8 24.9 62.6 11.4 2.8 14.1 11.0 91.4 102.4 2.0 0.7 2.7 Arsenal 13.0 92.0 105.1
Bournemouth 39.9 58.4 -18.5 40.6 8.1 -6.6 1.5 9.0 89.4 98.4 1.8 -1.2 0.6 Bournemouth 10.8 88.2 99.0
Burnley 29.7 51.8 -22.1 36.5 3.3 0.8 4.1 7.6 92.2 99.8 0.8 0.1 1.0 Burnley 8.5 92.3 100.8
Chelsea 57.6 27.7 29.9 67.5 24.4 -3.3 21.1 10.0 91.4 101.3 4.2 -1.0 3.2 Chelsea 14.2 90.3 104.5
Palace 39.8 46.5 -6.8 46.1 6.3 -14.5 -8.2 9.3 91.0 100.3 1.5 -2.8 -1.3 Palace 10.7 88.2 98.9
Everton 46.0 44.3 1.7 50.9 13.0 3.3 16.3 9.2 90.0 99.3 2.6 0.7 3.4 Everton 11.8 90.8 102.6
Hull 29.0 58.8 -29.8 33.0 5.0 -10.2 -5.2 7.3 90.5 97.8 1.2 -1.6 -0.4 Hull 8.5 88.9 97.4
Leicester 40.2 45.5 -5.3 46.9 3.8 -13.5 -9.7 9.4 91.8 101.1 0.9 -2.4 -1.6 Leicester 10.3 89.3 99.6
Liverpool 60.3 36.0 24.3 62.6 10.7 -3.0 7.7 9.5 88.2 97.7 1.7 -1.0 0.7 Liverpool 11.2 87.2 98.4
Man City 69.5 26.0 43.5 72.8 3.5 -10.0 -6.5 11.1 91.3 102.4 0.6 -3.3 -2.8 Man City 11.7 88.0 99.6
Man United 54.9 25.7 29.2 68.1 -3.9 0.7 -3.2 9.3 92.8 102.1 -0.7 0.2 -0.5 Man United 8.7 93.0 101.6
Middlesbrough 27.7 48.2 -20.5 36.5 -2.7 -0.8 -3.5 7.9 91.2 99.2 -0.8 -0.2 -0.9 Middlesbrough 7.2 91.1 98.2
Southampton 42.5 35.2 7.3 54.7 -4.5 -6.8 -11.3 7.8 91.8 99.6 -0.8 -1.6 -2.4 Southampton 7.0 90.2 97.2
Stoke 40.6 43.1 -2.5 48.5 -3.6 -11.9 -15.5 9.5 92.0 101.6 -0.8 -2.2 -3.0 Stoke 8.7 89.8 98.5
Sunderland 28.0 55.8 -27.8 33.4 -4.0 -9.2 -13.2 7.2 91.7 98.9 -1.0 -1.4 -2.4 Sunderland 6.2 90.3 96.5
Swansea 37.2 53.9 -16.7 40.8 4.8 -10.1 -5.3 9.2 89.5 98.7 1.2 -2.0 -0.8 Swansea 10.4 87.5 97.9
Tottenham 56.7 32.1 24.6 63.9 22.3 8.1 30.4 8.6 90.8 99.4 3.4 2.3 5.7 Tottenham 12.0 93.1 105.1
Watford 32.9 49.2 -16.3 40.1 4.1 -15.8 -11.7 7.9 90.8 98.7 1.0 -2.9 -2.0 Watford 8.8 87.9 96.7
West Brom 36.7 46.2 -9.6 44.2 5.4 -1.8 3.6 9.2 91.0 100.2 1.3 -0.3 1.0 West Brom 10.5 90.7 101.2
West Ham 43.8 52.2 -8.5 45.6 0.2 -6.8 -6.5 8.9 89.5 98.4 0.0 -1.4 -1.3 West Ham 9.0 88.1 97.1
LGE AVE 43.7 43.7 0.0 50.0 5.4 5.4 0.0 9.1 90.9 100.0 1.1 -1.1 0.0 LGE AVE 10.2 89.8 100.0